The price of major commodities tends to correlate with inflation indicators and is heavily dependent on fundamental factors, which makes forecasting much easier. Their presence underpins all aspects of the modern global economy, from the cars we drive to the food we buy and the electricity we summon with the press of a button. But which commodities are the most important, and what is the outlook for commodity prices in 2025 according to our Consensus forecast? The top ten list below is based on trade value data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). For the commodities exchange market to function, all producers must work to the same standard.
Most of the world’s natural gas is produced in the USA followed by Russia, Iran, Qatar, China and Canada and is widely consumed in the USA, Russia and China. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
- In investments, silver has gained popularity in the form of investment coins, which, due to their low cost, are often an alternative to gold coins.
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- However, silver is not seen to be as valuable as gold due to its rarity.
Geopolitical and economic factors shaping trading volumes
Natural gases are often the most traded commodities in the United States of America, Russia, Iran, Qatar, China, and Canada. While the traditional uses of gold have not changed, today it is also considered a most traded commodities key component in the production of electronics. This may be partially due to its versatile and multipurpose nature as it can be used for the production of soybean oil, soybean meal and other uses. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the United States is the leading producer and exporter of soybeans, exporting it mainly to China, the EU, Japan, Mexico and Taiwan. This type of oil is described as medium crude due to its relatively low density and sweetness due to its low sulfur content of approximately 0.34%.
- Gold CFDs are a popular choice for traders seeking to protect their wealth during economic uncertainty.
- However, the most popular commodities are highly liquid and suitable for intraday trading or even scalping.
- “Hard” commodities are natural resources to be extracted or cultivated.
- Volatile energy costs are a concern for the industry, as aluminum smelting is extremely energy-intensive; the smelting industry’s carbon footprint is an additional concern.
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Gold, the most popular metal
That said, automotive demand will tail off going forward as palladium substitution runs its course and the transition to electric vehicles continues. Labor strikes and power shortages in South Africa are the key risk to supply. Natural gas is a crucial energy source for power generation, heating and industrial processes, with increasing use as a cleaner alternative to coal. Iran, Russia and the U.S. are by far the largest producers, with the latter—along with Qatar—also the main exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Corn: Top Traded Grain Commodity
On the supply side, growth is constrained by geopolitical instability in key oil-producing regions, underinvestment in new exploration projects, and tightening environmental regulations. That said, oil output will get a boost this year from the unwinding of OPEC+ cuts and higher output from the Permian Basin in the U.S. Our analysts’ Brent crude price forecast for 2025 is lower than last at around USD 75 per barrel, largely due to the aforementioned rise in supply. Agricultural commodities remain prominently in trading volumes, with wheat, soybeans, and corn leading the pack.
Wheat: Largest Traded Agricultural Commodity
In particular, China’s booming solar and wind sectors plus slower economic growth will cap its appetite for coal. This feeds through to a softer coal price forecast in 2025 compared to 2024, with prices to continue declining in subsequent years. Lithium and cobalt are increasingly important in commodity trading due to their critical role in the production of electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy storage solutions.
As such, global soybean demand is heavily influenced by shifts in China’s meat consumption, as well as by weather conditions affecting harvests in supplying countries, and trade policies. On the supply side, climate change poses risks to future production, with droughts and extreme weather increasingly impacting yields in the Americas. For now, our soybean price forecast is for a lower average price in 2025 vs 2024 and to be at the lowest level since 2020, dampened by a record soybean harvest in Brazil and softer economic growth in China. That said, solid demand for plant-based proteins and biofuels should provide support. Renewed Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans pose a downside risk to prices. Coal remains a dominant energy source, particularly in electricity generation and steelmaking, despite growing environmental concerns.
Contrary to what many people think, gold is not the most expensive metal to trade. For example, coffee, which is one of the most traded commodities in the world, cannot be simply picked from a plant and put into a cup. Coffee needs to go through a complicated process before the beans (whole or ground) are ready to be used in a cafe or sold in a store. As it is sold on exchanges, coffee is cleaned, dried and packaged in sacks. The price indicators on each commodity will give you a clearer picture of what factors drive the movement of CFD commodities over a particular period. This will help you make more informed trading decisions and maximise your returns.
Crude oil, the most traded commodity
While oil ranks first in the world in terms of physical supply, gold trading is the global leader in exchange-traded contracts. Gold is a global commodity equivalent against which all world currencies are valued. Throughout history, gold has been considered the main measure of wealth and prosperity, and it is for this reason that the volume of gold trading grows year after year. Base metals like copper and aluminium have also seen substantial trading volumes this year. Copper, critical in producing electronic components and renewable energy infrastructure, has experienced heightened demand due to expanded renewable energy projects and electric vehicle (EV) production. Aluminium, with its versatility and lightweight properties, remains in high demand for its role in the automotive and construction industries.
A reliable platform usually provides its users with various modes of communication and prompt support to ensure their needs are met. The platform you will use must be licensed and regulated by regulatory commissions. Make sure to check the footer of your broker’s website, where you should find the broker’s registration number and governing regulatory body clearly displayed. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world. In July 2022, 1,443,289 Cocoa Futures Contracts were traded on the ICE. In 2022 the Singapore Exchange traded 12,476,340 Iron Ore Futures Contracts, which is a massive 1,247.7 million tons.
Gold: Most Valuable Commodity for Trading
As with all commodity assets, the key contract is futures for several types of sugar. The most commonly traded futures are No. 11 and No. 16, representing futures contracts for the physical delivery of raw cane sugar. The unit of measurement for No. 11 and No. 16 sugar contracts is pounds, while white sugar No. 407 is traded in tons. As with wheat, soybeans are traded on commodity markets in the form of soybean futures contracts.
The World’s Largest Traded Commodity — Gold
These geopolitical and economic influences have positioned commodities at the intersection of global uncertainty, with traders leveraging bullish and bearish opportunities to navigate volatile markets. Lithium, an emerging leader within the commodity landscape, has gained prominence as the demand for battery production intensifies, underscoring the shift towards renewable energy and electric mobility. The surge in lithium trading reflects the broader global push towards a more sustainable energy framework. Commodity trading is usually held either on an international commodity exchange or in the OTC market. The largest trading volume can be observed on the NYMEX, ICE, LME, and TOCOM exchanges. Trading on the commodity market is popular because these trading instruments are relatively predictable.